In a surprising geopolitical pivot, Israel has intensified its diplomatic and strategic engagement with Russia as part of a broader effort to limit Turkey’s burgeoning influence in Syria. This development, unfolding against the backdrop of a fractured Middle East, reflects Israel’s pragmatic approach to securing its northern border and maintaining regional stability. With Turkey asserting itself as a key player in the Syrian conflict, Israel’s outreach to Moscow signals a recalibration of alliances in a region long defined by shifting loyalties and competing interests.
The Context: Syria’s Evolving Landscape
Syria, ravaged by over a decade of civil war, remains a geopolitical chessboard where global and regional powers vie for influence. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, following a rapid offensive by rebel factions supported by Turkey, has significantly altered the balance of power. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has capitalized on this vacuum, backing groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to secure a foothold in northern Syria. Ankara’s ambitions include curbing Kurdish autonomy along its border and projecting power across the Levant, moves that have alarmed Israel.
For Israel, Turkey’s growing presence in Syria poses multiple threats. Ankara’s support for Islamist factions, some of which harbor anti-Israel sentiments, raises concerns about potential spillover into the Golan Heights. Moreover, Turkey’s alignment with Qatar and its strained relations with Israel—exacerbated by years of rhetorical hostility—have positioned it as a regional rival. In contrast, Russia, despite its own complex ties with Iran, has maintained a working relationship with Israel, particularly in coordinating deconfliction over Syrian airspace.
Israel’s Strategic Outreach to Russia
Israel’s decision to bolster ties with Russia is rooted in pragmatic security calculations. Since 2015, when Russia intervened militarily to prop up Assad, Moscow has been a dominant player in Syria. Even after Assad’s ouster, Russia retains significant leverage through its military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, as well as its relationships with remnants of the Syrian army and local militias. For Israel, Russia represents a counterweight to Turkey’s ambitions—one that can be engaged diplomatically and, if necessary, incentivized to act.
In early 2025, reports emerged of high-level meetings between Israeli and Russian officials, including discussions on intelligence sharing and joint efforts to stabilize southern Syria. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly sought assurances from Moscow that Turkish-backed forces would be kept away from the Golan Heights. In exchange, Israel has signaled a willingness to ease its criticism of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and explore economic cooperation, including energy deals.
This rapprochement builds on a history of tacit coordination. For years, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian assets and Hezbollah convoys, often with Russia turning a blind eye. Now, with Iran’s influence waning post-Assad and Turkey rising, Israel sees Russia as a partner capable of enforcing a buffer zone in Syria that aligns with its security interests.
Turkey’s Reaction and Regional Implications
Turkey has responded cautiously but with evident displeasure. Erdogan, speaking at a rally in Ankara in February 2025, accused “certain powers” of undermining Turkey’s legitimate role in Syria, though he stopped short of naming Israel or Russia directly. Turkish media outlets, however, have speculated that Israel’s outreach to Moscow could complicate Ankara’s plans to consolidate control over Idlib and Aleppo provinces.
The broader Middle East is watching closely. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both wary of Turkey’s neo-Ottoman aspirations, may quietly support Israel’s maneuver, seeing it as a check on Ankara’s influence. Iran, meanwhile, finds itself sidelined, its Syrian proxy network disrupted by Assad’s fall and its Russian ally now courted by its archenemy, Israel. The United States, distracted by domestic priorities and its pivot to Asia, has offered little public commentary, leaving Israel to navigate this shift largely on its own.
Challenges and Risks
Israel’s gambit is not without risks. Russia’s reliability as a partner remains uncertain—its interests in Syria are tied to its global standing and domestic priorities, not Israel’s security. Moscow’s historical ties with Turkey, cemented by trade and energy agreements, could limit its willingness to confront Ankara directly. Moreover, any perception that Israel is aligning too closely with Russia could strain its critical alliance with the United States, particularly if it involves concessions on Ukraine.
Domestically, Netanyahu faces criticism from opposition figures who argue that cozying up to Russia—a nation accused of war crimes elsewhere—undermines Israel’s moral standing. Public opinion, however, appears to favor the move, with polls in early 2025 showing strong support for prioritizing border security over ideological purity.
Conclusion
Israel’s strengthening ties with Russia mark a bold attempt to reshape the Syrian equation in its favor. By leveraging Moscow’s military and diplomatic clout, Israel aims to blunt Turkey’s ascendancy and secure its northeastern frontier. While the long-term success of this strategy remains uncertain, it underscores the fluidity of Middle Eastern alliances and Israel’s relentless focus on survival in a volatile region. As the dust settles in post-Assad Syria, the Israel-Russia partnership may prove to be a decisive factor in determining the next chapter of this enduring conflict.
